HDHP Saves $1,800/Year if You're Healthy. Costs $3,400/Year Extra if You're Not.
Low utilizer (under $1K healthcare/yr): HDHP wins by $1,500-2,500 with HSA tax shield. High utilizer ($8K+): low-deductible plan wins by $2-4K. Mid utilizer: coin flip. The break-even threshold is your honest forecast of next year's spending.