Multiply Your Electricity-to-Gas Price Ratio by 23: That's the COP a Heat Pump Needs to Beat an 80% Gas Furnace
At EIA's winter 2026-27 forecast (18.25¢ a kWh, $1.336 a therm) a heat pump needs a seasonal COP of 3.2 to match an 80% gas furnace. The break-even is just your two bill prices times 29.3 times the furnace efficiency. Here it is across 20 price combinations.