Is Travel Insurance Worth It? $150 Premium vs a $3,000 Trip and a Medical Emergency Abroad

Two very different risks, one premium

Travel insurance bundles two risks that behave nothing alike. Trip cancellation is relatively likely (illness, work conflicts, family emergencies) and capped at your prepaid trip cost — a real but bounded loss. Medical emergency abroad is much less likely per trip but effectively uncapped: a serious injury requiring medical evacuation can run into six figures, and most US domestic health plans provide little to no coverage once you're outside their network's country. Treating both risks with one "is it worth it" number, as this calculator does with net expected value, is useful — but the medical side deserves separate attention because it's the one where expected-value thinking most understates the case for coverage.

How the math works

Expected cancellation benefit = P(cancel) × trip cost × reimbursement %. Expected medical benefit = P(medical emergency) × min(cost, policy cap) × (1 − your existing coverage abroad %) — the incremental gap your regular health insurance wouldn't already close. Net expected value = total expected benefit − premium.

Separately, the tool reports your uninsured worst-case tail risk (trip cost + capped incremental medical exposure) — the number that matters most for the "insurance as catastrophe protection" argument, independent of whether the expected-value math favors buying.

What this tool doesn't model: "Cancel For Any Reason" riders typically reimburse only 50-75% (not 100%) and must be purchased within a short window of initial trip deposit; pre-existing condition waivers with their own eligibility windows; baggage/personal-item coverage (usually a smaller, separate benefit); or the practical value of a 24/7 assistance line coordinating an evacuation, which has real value beyond the dollar reimbursement.

Math runs locally. Inputs never leave your browser.Source on github.

Where this calculator's verdict can mislead you

• A negative expected value doesn't mean "skip it."If your trip cost is small but the medical tail risk is large, expected value can look negative while the policy is still a rational hedge against a catastrophic, low-probability loss — that's exactly what the tail-risk warning below the result is for.
• Your existing health plan may already cover more (or less) than you assume.Some credit cards include limited travel medical/evacuation benefits, and some domestic plans cover emergency care abroad at an out-of-network rate. Check your actual card benefits guide and health plan's Summary of Benefits before assuming 0% existing coverage.
• Destination changes both probabilities materially.A remote trek or a country with limited medical infrastructure raises both the medical-emergency probability and the expected evacuation cost — don't reuse the same estimates across very different trips.
• Airline/hotel "free cancellation" already covers some of this.If your flights and hotel are refundable or easily changeable, your real cancellation exposure is much smaller than the sticker trip cost — reduce the trip-cost input to just the truly non-refundable portion.

What to actually do with this number

1. Check your credit card's travel benefits and health plan's Summary of Benefits for existing coverage abroad before assuming you have none.
2. Get real quotes and read the actual coverage caps and cancellation-reimbursement percentage — don't assume 100% reimbursement or the coverage cap shown on the marketing page.
3. If your trip cost is mostly refundable already, lower the trip-cost input to reflect only the truly at-risk, non-refundable portion.
4. If the tail-risk warning appears, weigh it seriously even with a negative expected value — a remote or adventure-heavy trip is exactly the case insurance is designed for.
5. For pre-existing conditions or "Cancel For Any Reason" coverage, check the purchase window (often 14-21 days from initial trip deposit) — buying too late forfeits eligibility regardless of what this calculator says.