#FIRE

4 articles

Rachel's FIRE Number Is $1.26M at 50 — Marcus Earns 2× and Hits FIRE 4 Years Later

The FIRE number depends on what you spend, not what you earn. We ran two real-world profiles through the calculator: a $85K saver who spends $50K, and a $150K earner who spends $120K. The lower earner retires first.

Cutting $500/Month Spending Drops Your FIRE Number by $150K — Twice the Power of a $500 Raise

The FIRE number is annual expenses × 25. The math has a hidden asymmetry: every dollar you cut from spending moves the finish line closer AND speeds you toward it. We compared a $500 cut vs a $500 raise across 25 years.

Can I Retire at 40 on $80K? We Ran 5,000 Monte Carlo Paths to Find Out

A 25-year-old earning $80K, spending $40K, investing the rest. The simple 17-year math says yes — but a 5,000-path simulation says the survival rate is only 68%. Here's why, and what fixes it.

Retire at 45 Needs 30× Expenses, Not 25× — Sequence Risk Closes the Gap

The 25× rule survives 30-year retirements 95% of the time. Stretch the horizon to 45 years and survival drops to 76%. Here's why early retirement needs a different multiplier — and what fixes it without saving more.