Career Switch Runway: New Pay Wins in Year 7, Savings Catch Up in Year 15
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Quit a $6,500/month job for a 9-month, $15,000 retrain and start over at $5,000/month: savings bottom out at $9,000, the new paycheck passes the old one in year 7, and your savings only catch up in year 15. Run your own numbers.
Pay catching up is not the same as catching up
We ran the default scenario through the tool: $60,000 saved, $4,000 a month in expenses, a $6,500/month take-home job with 3% raises, left for a 9-month, $15,000 retrain and a first job in the new field at $5,000/month with 8% raises.
The savings bottom out at $9,000 in month 9. The new paycheck passes what the old job would be paying by then in year 7 (month 82). But the savings on the switch path only get back level with the stay path in year 15 (month 173). For most of the eight years in between, the new career pays more and you are still behind, because the gap built during the transition (up to $149,000 at its widest, in year 8) only starts shrinking once the new pay is higher.
That second date is the one most “will it pay off” estimates skip. Here is how it moves when one input changes, everything else at the defaults, compared over 15 years:
| Change from the default | Lowest savings | New pay passes old | Savings catch up | After 15 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | $9,000 | Year 7 | Year 15 | $31,238 ahead |
| $40,000 saved instead of $60,000 | −$11,000 (short) | Year 7 | Year 15 | $31,238 ahead |
| $1,500/month side income while retraining | $22,500 | Year 7 | Year 15 | $44,738 ahead |
| 6 months without pay instead of 9 | $21,000 | Year 7 | Year 14 | $75,296 ahead |
| Start at $5,500/month instead of $5,000 | $9,000 | Year 5 | Year 12 | $180,933 ahead |
| 5% raises in the new field instead of 8% | $9,000 | Year 15 | Not in 15 years | $260,098 behind |
Two things stand out. Savings decide whether you get through the switch, but barely change when it pays off: $20,000 less saved leaves the catch-up dates exactly where they were. And the long-run answer is driven by the new field’s pay: $500 more at the start pulls the savings catch-up three years earlier, while three fewer months without pay buys one year.
How the math works
Both paths start from the same savings and are stepped forward one month at a time.
- Stay: each month adds take-home pay minus expenses. Pay rises once a year by your current raise.
- Switch: the retraining cost comes out on day one. For each month without a salary, side income minus expenses is added (usually a negative number). Then the new job starts, and pay rises once a year from that first paycheck by the new field’s raise.
Pay in either job is starting pay × (1 + raise)^(full years in that job). The low point is the smallest switch-path balance. The pay catch-up is the first month new pay ≥ stay pay; the savings catch-up is the first month switch savings ≥ stay savings. Because the two jobs give raises in different months, the old job can pull ahead again for a few months right after its raise would have landed (in the default, months 85 to 93); the tool reports the first crossing.
Savings earn nothing on either path. That keeps the comparison about the pay itself rather than an assumed market return, and it treats both paths the same, but it understates both balances if you invest.
Math runs locally. Inputs never leave your browser. Source on github.
Where this model doesn’t fit
- Raises that stay high for decades. Early-career raises in a new field can run well above inflation for a few years and then flatten. One rate held for 15 years flatters the switch; try a lower rate to see how sensitive your answer is.
- The first job takes longer to find than the course takes to finish. “Months without a salary” has to include the job search. If you don’t know how long that is in your target field, run it with an extra 3–6 months.
- Retirement contributions and benefits. Take-home pay here is after tax and before nothing else. If the old job had an employer retirement match or health coverage the new one lacks, the real gap is wider than shown.
- Going back. The model assumes you stay in the new field. If the switch doesn’t work out, the old career may not take you back at the old pay.
- Expenses that change with the career. A switch that comes with a move, a commute, or cutting back while retraining changes the expense line, which this tool holds flat.
A 2026 Adaptavist survey reported by SecurityBrief found about a third of knowledge workers were considering a change of industry because of AI. The tool doesn’t predict which jobs AI will change; it only shows what the switch you’re considering would do to your savings.
What to actually do
- Put in the starting salary for the new field from real job postings at entry level, not the average for the profession.
- Count job hunting inside “months without a salary”.
- If the low point is negative, close the gap before quitting: save the shortfall, line up side income, or shorten the transition by retraining part-time first.
- Check the savings catch-up year, not only the pay catch-up year, against how long you expect to stay in the new career.
- Lower the new field’s raise until the catch-up disappears. If it vanishes at a rate you find plausible, the switch is a bet on fast raises.